Support for Ukraine

Ron's Blog

U.S. sentiment regarding support for Ukraine is divided – but not along party lines.

As a whole, the country supports Ukraine. The recent bill for $45 billion more of support passed the Congress and the Senate with both Democrat and Republican support.

As an American citizen, I find it difficult to have a strong opinion on the subject. It is OUR opinions that matter on this issue even though very few of us are experts in geopolitical issues. We must be informed.

But this is very difficult. I’ve listened to very smart people on both sides of the debate. Each side makes good points, and at the same time each side uses propaganda and gaslighting to convince the public they are right.

To help myself and maybe others, I did my own analysis. Below, I outline the points of each side as I understand it along with some of the conclusions I have drawn.

Supporting the War

In general:

From the Department of State’s website:

Moscow’s actions in Ukraine threaten to set new precedents on European soil, undermining these basic international principles vital to peace and security:

  • The borders and territorial integrity of a state cannot be changed by force.   
  • Citizens in a democracy have an inherent right to determine their country’s future.   
  • All members of the international community are bound by common rules and must face consequences if they break their solemn commitments.  

Also:

  • There is a strong Anti-Russian sentiment: The U.S. still views Russia as Enemy #1 (even when China is clearly the biggest threat economically.) Any expansion by Russia is seen as a threat to the U.S. The “Red Scare” is still alive and well.

One of the smartest and most articulate people I follow on geopolitical issues is Kyle Bass, Chief Investment Officer at Heyman Capital. He adds a few more reasons:

  • When Ukraine voted for independence from Russia in 1991, the U.S. and the UK worked with Russia to denuclearize Ukraine. We subsequently agreed to be responsible for their sovereignty from Russia with this move.
  • The War with Ukraine is part of Vladimir Putin’s bigger plan to take over the Baltics (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) and perhaps Poland as Russia moves its border to west.
  • China is watching how the world reacts to Russia’s advance on Ukraine in making a decision on Taiwan. Sanctions are a critical component of the war.

In Kyle’s words: “There is only one answer in Ukraine War: full victory for Ukraine.” He believes the U.S. needs to continue supporting at the levels we are currently.

Opposing the War

In general:

  • Escalating a conflict with Russia could lead to nuclear war.
  • The U.S. can’t afford the war. The U.S. is projecting a $1.3T deficit in FY 2023.
  • The U.S. should stop being the world police.
  • The support for Ukraine is disproportionate to other needs that the U.S. has like securing the border and dealing with the Fentanyl crisis that is killing Americans.
  • The U.S. Military Industrial Complex benefits from the war. As Eisenhower indicated decades ago, this is something to be concerned with.
  • There is no accountability for the support given to Ukraine. There is no money trail or inventory.
  • If the U.S. did not escalate the war by supporting Ukraine militarily, less damage would be done and less people would die. Economic sanctions alone – if every country would participate – would be enough to cripple the Russian economy.
  • The situation in Ukraine is a proxy war between the warmongering U.S. and Russia. It uses Ukraine citizens to take on our enemy.
  • The EU’s support for the war is negligible next to the U.S. and UK.

*Germany’s support for the war is likely net negative. Germany does not allow support planes from UK to fly over their air space to support Ukraine. Germany still gets about 25% of their Natural Gas from Russia.

Noise

Beyond the above listed reasons why the U.S. should or shouldn’t get involved in the Ukraine War, there is considerable noise. In an effort to think clearly, I have to separate the wheat and chaff. The propaganda on both sides present information, IMO, that is not substantive:

  • “By defending Ukraine we are fighting for freedom and democracy.” Ukraine is not a freedom and democracy poster child. During this war, Zelensky has silenced all media outlets that spoke against him and even acted against churches that were suspected of Russian sympathy. IMO Democracy is not a major issue in this war.
  • “Ukraine has a corrupt government.” The same could be said about the U.S. and many other countries in the world.
  • “The is U.S. government is fawning over Zelensky.” I agree that the parroting of Zelensky as the next Winston Churchill by many media outlets was an example of how the media works in lockstep to manipulate us, but it really isn’t a reason to not support Ukraine.
  • “Russia was prodded into war”. The U.S. and NATO have been putting pressure on Russia with the continued pursuit of placing arms at their doorsteps. That does not justify Russia attacking a sovereign nation. Russia has greatly benefited from good relations with Europe with the sale of energy. This war changed all that for a long time to come. It’s simply no longer acceptable behavior for a global citizen to try to take over another country. This goes for the U.S. as well (Iraq, Afghanistan).

There have been several Ukrainian polls over the years and the data suggests that Ukrainians are satisfied with their government and Zelensky – however corrupt, non-democratic, or manipulative they are. Sovereignty is the issue – the right to do what they want with their country.

How Much Support?

On one end of the spectrum, the option is to give no support to Ukraine and insist on them getting to a diplomatic solution (Surrender ).

On the other end, nothing less than removing Russia from ALL of Ukraine is acceptable.

Is there something in between?

In my analysis, it appears to be all or nothing. In Game Theory, they call this a Zero Sum game – one wins, one loses.

But as we all know, there are always Win-Win arrangements: Arrangements where neither party loses. Maybe they aren’t as big of a win, but they are still a win.

And just so we’re clear, a nuclear war is a BIG LOSE-LOSE. There is an increased chance of nuclear war if we put Putin in a position to lose.

A potential Win-Win would be to dial the war back. Escalation results in more death and destruction and more risk for nuclear war (lose). If Ukraine can just hold existing lines, won’t that reduce the death and destruction (win)? Russia hangs on to the territory they have (win) but as the sanctions take hold they may want to come back to the bargaining table. Isn’t time on our side with sanctioning Russia?

Where I’m at today:

I really don’t know exactly where I should stand on this issue. Both sides make good points. I also recognize that the information I have is limited. Here is what I know:

  • Russia’s attack on Ukraine was wrong and there must be retribution.
  • The games played with the Ukraine government by the U.S. and Russia were also wrong. Both nations want control of the country and as a result have jeopardized its future.
  • 2023 will be one of the last years we will be able to fund the Military Industrial Complex at its current levels. Considering inflation, the U.S. will be actually contributing less to the military in 2023 than previous years. The U.S. Government is broke and its $32 trillion in debt is going to eat up the government’s budget due to inflation. Hard choices will need to be made.
  • It is in the world’s best interest to have peace in Ukraine. Beyond the death and destruction in Ukraine, the war is causing global energy and financial crisis and a migrant crisis in Europe.
  • Ukraine should be independent. Unlike the Baltic states, they will need to be non-NATO as agreed in 1991. Other than that, they should choose their destiny.
  • Demilitarization of Ukraine, a requirement by Russia for peace, is no longer an option once Ukraine was attacked. Ukraine will need its own military to prevent actions in the future.
  • De-escalation on both sides should be the U.S. goal for Ukraine. This is in OUR best interest.
  • Russia will not give up either the territory annexed in September or Crimea without a severe escalation in the war. I believe Russia should be sanctioned heavily as a poor global citizen until they leave. Strong sanctions WILL work if enough countries get behind it. Those that believe force must be met with force are naive . We are in a global economy and concerted effort can easily cause Russia’s economy to collapse over time.
  • The world needs to reduce its demand for fossil fuels. This is Russia’s main playing card in the game.
  • The U.S. Military Industrial Complex is way too powerful and it costs about 8X more per year than the war in Ukraine. They are benefitting from this war and this is distorting the judgement of our government. We need to vote in politicians that are focused on a practical plan for peace.
  • No more blank checks. The U.S. should have input into the conflict if we are one of the main sponsors of it. There should also be accountability.
  • We need to insist on more involvement from European nations. Right now, Europe is divided on the issue and the Ukraine War could very well be the straw that breaks the EUs back.

Hope you found this useful.

Ron